September 28, 2022

GOP widens lead on Congressional ballot

The 2022 midterm elections are now 172 days away and Republicans have a nine-point lead in their bid to regain control of Congress.

Rasmussen Reports’ latest national telephone and online survey finds that if the congressional elections were held today, 48% of likely US voters would vote for the Republican nominee, while 39% would vote for the Democrat. Only four percent (4%) would vote for another candidate, but another eight percent (8%) are unsure. (To see the wording of the survey questions, click here.)

Republicans have added a point to their advantage in Congress since April, when they led 47% to 39%.

In May 2018, before voters gave Democrats their first House majority in eight years, Democrats held a one-point advantage (43% to 42%) in the generic polling question. Heading into the November 2018 midterm elections, the margin was a statistical stalemate — Republicans 46%, Democrats 45% — in the last poll before Democrats won a narrow majority in the House while Republicans won. seats in the Senate to keep control of that chamber.

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The survey of 2,500 likely US voters was conducted May 15-19, 2022 by Rasmussen Reports. The margin of sampling error is +/- 2 percentage points with a 95% confidence level. Fieldwork for all Rasmussen Reports surveys is performed by Pulse Opinion Research, LLC. See methodology.

The nine-point advantage for Republicans in the latest poll is greater than what Democrats enjoyed at any time during the 2018 midterm campaign, due to both greater GOP partisan intensity and an advantage of 18 points among the independents. While 88% of Republican voters say they would vote for their own party’s congressional candidate, only 80% of Democrats would vote for the Democratic nominee. Among voters unaffiliated with either major party, 45% would vote Republican and 27% would vote Democrat, while 10% would vote for another candidate and 18% are undecided.

Fifty-four percent (54%) of white voters, 23% of black voters and 46% of other minorities would vote Republican if the election were held today. Sixty percent (60%) of black voters, 36% of whites and 38% of other minorities would vote Democratic.

The so-called “gender gap” is apparent in the latest findings, with men (52%) seven points more likely than female voters (45%) to favor Republican candidates for Congress.

Voters under 40 favor Democrats by a margin of 44% to 36%, but 54% of voters 40 and older would vote Republican if the election were held today.

Breaking down the electorate by income brackets, Republicans enjoy their greatest advantage — 50% to 40% — among voters earning between $100,000 and $200,000 a year.

The Republican edge is strongest among entrepreneurs, who favor the GOP by a 22-point margin, 54%-32%, over Democrats.

More voters describe themselves as pro-choice than pro-life, but a significant majority support state laws that limit the end of a pregnancy at which an abortion can be performed.

Climate change isn’t a huge issue for most voters, but Democrats are far more concerned about the issue.

Additional information from this survey and a full demographic breakdown is available to Platinum members only.

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The survey of 2,500 likely US voters was conducted May 15-19, 2022 by Rasmussen Reports. The margin of sampling error is +/- 2 percentage points with a 95% confidence level. Fieldwork for all Rasmussen Reports surveys is performed by Pulse Opinion Research, LLC. See methodology

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